There are many great golf courses in this country, several of which touch no body of water bigger than a pond to carry on a par 3. But when it comes to courses on the shore, America has those in excess like it has craft beers. Any conversation that includes the likes of Pebble Beach or Whistling Straits must also include the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, which beginning Thursday serves as the scene for the world's greatest golfers in a major: the PGA Championship.
The Course
Kiawah lacks very little when it comes to history and lacks even less when it comes to length. It is a monster of a course, playing more than 7,800 yards from the championship tees, and has hosted a PGA Championship, Senior PGA Championship, PGA Club Professional Championship, the World Cup of Golf, and the Ryder Cup. Its introduction to the world came in 1991, the "War by the Shore," as it's known now, a one-point American victory in the Ryder Cup. It's most recent stint in the spotlight came in 2012, when a 22-year-old Rory McIlroy lapped the field, winning by a record eight strokes for his second major victory. McIlroy's win gave him multiple majors, the youngest to accomplish the feat since Seve Ballesteros. No, Tiger did not do it. Woods was 23 when he won his second major. But he's won a few more than Rory since.
The Ocean Course is just that: an ocean course. Wind will almost assuredly play a factor, and when the course is 7,800 yards to begin with, length will be important. It may not be the most important factor of the weekend, but long hitters will have an advantage. Playing an 8-iron into a green vs. a 5-iron is just an easier shot.
The Favorites
Rory McIlroy
Vegas likes McIlroy the most this week, and who could blame them? The 4-time major champion returns to a venue where he's had success in terrific form, having won just a few weeks ago at Quail Hollow (another course he'd won at previously). But this McIlroy is a far different version than the one who blasted the field nearly a decade ago. Rory's been working on a playing a cut off the tee, different from the draw he used to tame the Ocean Course the last time. And in all honesty, he won at Quail Hollow without his best off the tee.
A win for McIlroy would cement his return. He hasn't won a major since 2014, when he won the PGA Championship. It is the only major McIlroy has won more than once. He has the length to get around the Ocean Course without much trouble, but he'll need to be more accurate off the tee. He found just 19 of 56 possible fairways on his way to the win at the Wells Fargo. That will not work into the wind on a 7,800 yard course. But as the 18th hole on Sunday in Charlotte showed us, expect the unexpected with McIlroy.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth arrives in Charleston searching once again for the career Grand Slam. He's been searching since winning the Open Championship in 2017. But he is undoubtedly playing his best golf since that point. A T3 at The Masters and a win the weekend before in San Antonio have boosted Spieth's confidence. He's back to his normal self: hitting ridiculous shots, reciting Shakespeare to his ball when it's in the air, and contending week in and week out.
If you exclude Augusta in April, this is likely the best anyone has felt about Spieth's game entering a major since that incredible run early in his career. He has more than enough distance off the tee, and his numbers on and around the green remain world class. But Spieth, like McIlroy, has shown a penchant for playing from the trees. When the trees are replaced with water, that is problematic. Spieth is 143rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Accuracy will be key for Spieth to join one of golf's most exclusive clubs.
Justin Thomas
The son and grandson of former PGA Professionals, Thomas has never hid his love for this tournament. His only major came in the PGA Championship, back in 2017. And he shapes the ball as well as anyone, always an important skill in the wind. While he doesn't have a top-ten since winning The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass (another Pete and Alice Dye-designed course, like the Ocean Course), the numbers don't tell the whole story there, nor are they that bad in the first place.
A T42 at the Dell Match Play in Austin is not a great result, but it was Thomas's first event since winning at Sawgrass. Since then, he finished T21 at The Masters, a disappointing but not terrible result. He finished T13 at the Valspar Championship, a week he could not get his putter to behave and still led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He followed that with a T26 at the Wells Fargo. The fact that some are making those finishes out to be bad tells you why Thomas is a favorite. He enters every tournament with the expectation he's going to win. And while several players have the same mindset, there's only a handful that can pull it off. Thomas is one of them.
Jon Rahm
Rahm leads the group of guys still after their first major championship. For Rahm, it seems more of when it happens than if, but it's felt that way with others who are yet to win one of the sport's biggest tournaments (Rickie Fowler). Rahm's results in this year's most important tournaments have been impressive. He finished 5th in The Masters and 9th in The Players Championship. But he's been impressive everywhere, racking up five top-10s in the other 10 appearances he's made since the US Open.
Rahm will likely feel calmer than his last major, his wife having just given birth before Augusta. He's had some time to adjust to being a dad, but the results have not followed. Since The Masters, Rahm missed the cut at the Wells Fargo and finished 34th in last week's AT&T Byron Nelson classic. He's a gamer though, and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see him lifting the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.
Bryson DeChambeau
Any course that flirts with 8,000 yards is going to be right in DeChambeau's wheelhouse, especially if it's a major. His talent is undeniable, regardless of how you feel about his presence, and there are several who still dislike DeChambeau. But the fact remains he made Winged Foot look smaller than it is, and did so with little trouble in the rough. Kiawah will present more sand and native area, which can devastate even the most skilled players. But no one hits it like Bryson, and it would certainly be expected that he's mashing driver whenever possible.
Since a win at Bay Hill and a T3 at Sawgrass the week after, Bryson hasn't seen the results he's looking for regularly. His best finish is a T9 at the Wells Fargo, but he doesn't have a top-40 finish otherwise in more than two months. On paper, his game isn't where it needs to be to win. But when you drive it 30 yards farther than anyone else, paper doesn't matter. DeChambeau will be a factor, at the very worst in name only.
The Others
Dustin Johnson
It almost doesn't feel right excluding DJ from "The Favorites" list, but it just hasn't been there lately for the world's number one player. Johnson doesn't have a top-10 finish since February, and he missed the cut at The Masters. If that's because of a post 2020-Masters hangover, he surely has had enough time to recover by now. He's from South Carolina, and while Myrtle Beach and Charleston aren't exactly next door, he'll be familiar with his surroundings. Plus, he still hits bombs, so that will help.
Collin Morikawa
Last year's PGA Champion, Morikawa hasn't played on Tour since a 7th place finish at Hilton Head in mid-April. But who can forget the eagle on the 16th at Harding Park to seal the deal in last year's event. He showed on that day he will be a factor in majors, and I wouldn't expect that to be any different this week. Morikawa has four top-10s in his last seven events, and finished in the top-20 at The Masters. That appears to be the expectation every time out for the 24-year-old.
Brooks Kopeka
Which version of Koepka are we talking about? The major machine version or the version that looked like he was having trouble bending down to read greens last week? It's all about the knee for Koepka. If it's good, he's a threat, and is in the wrong section of this article. If it's not, he's still a threat, but a much less dangerous one. Right now, he doesn't have the finishes that indicate he's going to be a factor. He's missed the cut at each of his last two tournaments, last week in Dallas, and before that at The Masters. He hasn't played a lot, and hasn't played well when he has. So naturally, he'll probably win.
Tony Finau
Finau is quietly developing the reputation of a major championship bulldog. He's another guy searching for his first major win, and one that could get it at any moment. But he's also looking for any win, as he only has one career victory. At a bomber's course though, Finau can contend. He was right there at Harding Park as well before Morikawa pulled away from the field late. One of these days, he'll get one.
Watch out for...
Sam Burns
The 24-year-old is playing as well as anyone in the sport right now, as he has a win, a second, a fourth place finish in his last three events. He's ready to enter the conversation of the best young players in the game.
Max Homa
Another guy in solid form this season, Homa has talked at length about how high his self-confidence is, and it's shown. He's won this year already, but did miss the cut at The Masters.
Abraham Ancer
Speaking of self-confidence, Ancer has as much of that as anyone. He's moved far beyond "the guy who challenged Tiger Woods at The Presidents Cup," and has become a bonafide talent. He hasn't finished outside 26th in any tournament since late February, and is coming off a second place finish to McIlroy in Charlotte.
Will Zalatoris
He's been too good not to include in some way. I'm still not convinced he won't find his way onto the Ryder Cup team. A second place finish at The Masters gets you on this list alone.
The Pick
There have been three consecutive first-time major winners the last three chances: Hideki Matsuyama at The Masters, Morikawa at the PGA Championship, and DeChambeau at the US Open. That represents the longest stretch of its kind since the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017 when Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia, and Justin Thomas each won their first majors consecutively. I'm guessing that streak ends this weekend. Justin Thomas is a hot-putter away from having the discussion be much different surrounding his chances. But the same way Alabama seems to rise to the occasion every chance possible in football, its most famous golfing alumnus will do the same this weekend. Thomas wins over Spieth in what is hopefully the first of many major showdowns for those two.