The NFL Draft is set for Thursday night, and it brings with it optimism in even the darkest of situations. For every diamond in the rough, there are more busts. And if we're being fair, it's hard to be considered a bust if you don't go in the first round. With that in mind, and in honor of the Detroit Lions drafting #7 overall, I decided to rank the seven best and seven worst picks of the top seven overall selections from each of the last seven drafts. Say that fast five times, and you've earned a 7 and 7.
The Bad
#7 - 2020 - Jeff Okudah (3rd overall to the Detroit Lions) - Had to be a Lion first, right? I hesitate to include Okudah because the jury is still out on whether he can right the ship, but a dismal rookie season has him at number seven on the list. The Lions made Okudah the first cornerback selected in the top three since 1997 when they took him out of Ohio State. After one season, Okudah is yet to match that hype. Pro Football Focus ranked him 117th out of 124 qualifying cornerbacks for his performance last season. To say he looked lost at times would be generous. Yet he's still young, still has plenty of talent, and, now with a new coaching staff and organizational structure, still will get the chance to showcase that talent.
#6 - 2015 - Marcus Mariota (2nd overall to the Tennessee Titans) - Mariota was the second quarterback off the board in 2015, going one pick after Tampa Bay selected Jameis Winston. And while Winston's career is certainly not bound for Canton, Mariota's career has stalled. It looked like the former Heisman Trophy winner was ready to break out after his second season with the Titans, when he threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 26 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. But he was never able to regain that form from 2016, and has thrown just 32 touchdowns in the four seasons since then. He's still kicking the tires as a backup in Las Vegas. But the hope is that a former #2 overall pick is not a backup after just five years in the league.
#5 - 2014 - Blake Bortles (3rd overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars) - Bortles' laid-back attitude has made him a fan favorite over the years, while his play on the field has made him anything but. The first of 14 quarterbacks taken in the 2014 draft, the former UCF star was still in the league as of last year, so like Mariota he has stuck around and turned himself into a career backup. However that's not what the Jaguars had in mind when they hoped they'd found their franchise's face. Bortles played five seasons in Jacksonville, and did throw for more than 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns in his second season. He's thrown 67 touchdowns in the five seasons since that point, and the Jaguars have still not found a QB.
#4 - 2017 - Solomon Thomas (3rd overall to the San Francisco 49ers) - It was a match made in Northern California heaven. John Lynch had just taken over the 49ers after working in the booth for FOX Sports, and Thomas was coming out of Lynch's alma mater (Stanford) as a highly ranked defensive end. And while many of the moves Lynch has made while running the Niners have worked, this one did not. In four seasons, Thomas has played in 48 games and has produced just six sacks. That will work for a safety, but not a defensive end. Injuries have played a part as well, as Thomas tore his ACL this past year. The Niners did not re-sign him, and Thomas is now with the Raiders on a one-year deal.
#3 - 2014 - Greg Robinson (2nd overall to the St. Louis Rams) - There's an argument for Robinson to be higher on this list (or lower, depending on how you look at it). The Rams must have viewed the Auburn product as the potential cornerstone of an offensive line that could lead them back to the "greatest show on turf" days. Yet the organization, like Robinson's career, would not last, as the team moved to Los Angeles before the 2016 season. Robinson played one season in LA, and three with the Rams total before they traded him to Detroit in 2017 for the prized return of a 6th round pick. He did resurrect his career (somewhat) in Cleveland, playing in 31 games over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. But legal troubles kept him off a roster in 2020, something likely to be the case in 2021 as well.
#2 - 2015 - Kevin White (7th overall to the Chicago Bears) - No person deserves to be on this list less than Kevin White, but as the saying goes, NFL stands for "Not For Long." Injuries derailed White's career as much as any skill player in recent memory. He was compared to Amari Cooper when the two came out of college the same year, Cooper from Alabama, White from West Virginia. White did not see any action in his rookie season cause of leg issues. He played the first four games of his second season before he broke his leg. He broke his shoulder blade in the first game of his third season in 2017. He played nine games in 2018, no games in 2019 and three games this past year with the 49ers. White has just 25 catches in his career.
#1 - 2017 - Mitchell Trubisky (2nd overall to the Chicago Bears) - Mitchapalooza looked a lot more fun with Frank the Tank than it did with Trubisky. First, we need to recognize Trubisky has had an OK career. He has been to the Pro Bowl once and the playoffs twice. But the Trubisky selection will go down in the annals of terrible draft picks with the likes of Sam Bowie, Tony Mandarich, and others who have watched all-time greats follow them in the draft. It isn't Trubisky's fault the Bears organization seriously whiffed on evaluating his talent compared to the other QBs available in the 2017 draft. But to think Chicago could have had Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson and instead selected Trubisky? This was not a hard choice.
The Good
#7 - 2016 - Ezekiel Elliott (4th overall to the Dallas Cowboys) - Elliott has been one of the best running backs in the league since the second he stepped onto the field. He's never averaged fewer than 4.0 YPC for a full season. The only reason he's not higher on this list is because he's yet to replicate the gaudy numbers he produced as a rookie (1,994 total yards, 16 TDs). In five NFL seasons, the former Buckeye has been an All-Pro, a 2nd team All-Pro, led the league in rushing, and scored 56 touchdowns in 71 games. His production is undeniable.
#6 - 2017 - Jamal Adams (6th overall to the New York Jets) - Adams came out of LSU as a stud, and has remained a stud through his first four NFL seasons. There's not much he doesn't do well. He's physical enough to play at the line of scrimmage (21.5 sacks in four years), yet has the speed and size to play with most any pass-catcher in the league. He's been an All-Pro, and a 2nd team All-Pro selection twice. He can pick you off, force a fumble, and let you know about it...quickly. Adams plays with a cockiness in his game that has served him well, and has served both the Jets and Seahawks well. And NFL teams clearly agree, as Seattle paid a heavy price to get him: a player, two first round picks, and a third round pick.
#5 - 2016 - Jalen Ramsey (5th overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars) - No one is better at shutting you down and letting you know about it than Jalen Ramsey. A starter from day one with the Jaguars back in 2016, Ramsey (like Jamal Adams) has turned out to be exactly what you're looking for when you draft a defensive back in the top ten. He doesn't have massive interception numbers (11 picks in four seasons), but on the Rams defense that's not a problem. Los Angeles proved how the league values a player of Ramsey's talent by giving up two first round picks and a fourth round pick to acquire him. The former Florida State star is a two-time All-Pro selection.
#4 - 2016 - Joey Bosa (3rd overall to the San Diego Chargers) - Bosa is an absolute terror. 47.5 sacks in 63 games earns you that title unequivocally. The former Buckeye has proven he's that rare breed that can take a game over from the defensive end position. He's been an All-Pro twice, and was the NFL's Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2016. He almost singlehandedly kept the Chargers in a game against the Bills this past year, sacking Josh Allen three times and recovering a fumble. Injuries have limited him at times, but when healthy, he's as good of a defensive end as there is in the league.
#3 - 2018 - Quenton Nelson (6th overall to the Indianapolis Colts) - There had to be at least one offensive lineman make this list, and that distinction belongs to Nelson. He's one of the latest in a long line of Notre Dame hog mollies who have not only panned out at the next level, but have succeeded with flying colors. Guards don't always go number six overall in the draft, but when they do, they better be good, and Nelson is. He has started every game of his NFL career, and has been an All-Pro every year. According to Pro Football Focus, Nelson played 1,082 snaps in 2020, and allowed one sack. The Colts appear poised to again have a solid rushing attack, and Nelson is a big reason why.
#2 - 2014 - Khalil Mack (5th overall to the Oakland Raiders) - There is no box that Mack doesn't check as a player. He can rush the quarterback as well as anyone, get a hand up and knock a pass down, force holding penalty after holding penalty, and change the game. Hell, he even has two pick-sixes in his career. Mack is a three-time All-Pro selection, and has also been a second team All-Pro performer. He's played in six Pro Bowls and was the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Like Ramsey and Adams, Mack also commanded two first round picks in a trade that sent him from the Raiders to the Bears. I'm still not sure why the Raiders traded him. I'm not sure I'll ever be sure.
#1 - 2018 - Josh Allen (7th overall to the Buffalo Bills) - In a draft that saw three quarterbacks go in the first seven picks (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold), Allen has had the best career of the bunch. If you can win in Buffalo, you can win anywhere, and the Bills are trending up like few other franchises in the league. Allen is a physical specimen, capable of throwing a ball like Uncle Rico, and running you over like Earl Campbell. Alright, maybe not quite like Campbell, but he's a load to tackle. He doesn't have the crazy All-Pro stats like others on this list. But of all the QBs who have gone in the top seven in the last seven years, Allen's future seems the brightest, which immediately jolts him to the top of this list. If he was a project in the beginning, that project received an A at last check. Allen is coming off a year with nearly 5,000 yards of offense, 45 touchdowns, a berth in the AFC Championship game, and four AFC Offensive Player of the Week awards. Pretty, pretty good.